Win and Draw Stats from Stan's NetChess

[savin]

We recently calculated some stats using over 300,000 completed games on the site:

Likelihood of a Draw by Level

Level	Draw %
Category 4	2.1%
Category 3	6.2%
Category 2	9.2%
Category 1	15.3%
Expert	27.8%

White Win % by Level

The win% is calculated by giving white 1 pt for a win and 1/2 pt for a draw. A win% 0f 50% would mean that white and black had an equal number of points.

	White	Black
Level	Win %	Win %
Category 4	49.3%	50.7%
Category 3	51.9%	48.1%
Category 2	51.7%	48.3%
Category 1	52.8%	47.2%
Expert	53.7%	46.3%

The slightly higher win% for black in category 4 is probably explained by a tendency for better players to play black more often when playing a lower rated player in a friendly match.

[yitwail]

i've drawn 16.1% of my games, and i'm in category one, which fits your stats. looks like i need to draw a lot more if i hope to become an expert. ;D

[savin]

Draws are quite common amongst the top players and less common in players in Category 4, 3, 2 and 1.
The following tables show the top 10 most likely players to draw by Category;
We have only included active players. The draw % is based on games with other players in the same level and we have only included players that have at least 25 results against other players in their own level.

Category 4 Top 10 Most Likely to Draw

		Games
Level	Draw %	Played
Tony58	29.3%	41
michaelbolton	23.4%	64
T-Bear	18.4%	76
Tjade59	10.9%	64
Fruit bat	8.7%	208
Mambo 5	8.6%	35
JohnSilver	7.7%	65
sirlosealot	7.7%	26
cobblers	7.1%	28
Flame of the West	6.8%	205

Category 3 Top 10 Most Likely to Draw

		Games
Level	Draw %	Played
Bruiser	35.9%	640
AndrewO	27.5%	40
henktannd	23.7%	38
geni	23.5%	34
ALSKI 11	22.5%	213
knightmonger	17.2%	667
PatzEric	16.1%	149
rajko	15.2%	204
TheDeacon	15.1%	73
Georg	14.7%	441

Category 2 Top 10 Most Likely to Draw

		Games
Level	Draw %	Played
Thunderboy	39.5%	81
boetie	30.0%	30
henk	27.3%	377
QETUTOR2	25.6%	78
PANDURANGAIAH	25.0%	68
Pineywoods	24.7%	81
warringtonclaret	24.5%	49
zev22407	24.1%	29
knightfork	22.2%	36
FLASHGORDON	20.6%	97

Category 1 Top 10 Most Likely to Draw

		Games
Level	Draw %	Played
stormcrow316	32.6%	368
kml	32.0%	100
caissad4	29.8%	57
olavi	28.2%	131
chaimdzbanek	28.2%	39
YB	27.3%	33
bartolomej	25.0%	40
SHAMAEL	24.4%	340
AlbertaRedneck	24.2%	66
hands-up	23.9%	117

[yitwail]

savin, might also be interesting to see who are the players least likely to draw in each category.

[savin]

And finally some interesting Win%. We analyzed player's win% against other players in the same level. We only included current players that had at least 40 results against players in their own level. Some of the results are interesting. For each we show the top 10 by win%. One would think most of these players are about to get promoted to a higher level, but perhaps their results against players of other levels is less impressive? Remember, only results against players of the same level are included in the calculations. We have only run the stats for Category 1, 2 and 3. Category 4 has to large a spread of ratings as does Expert. These categories tend to have a 200 range in ratings so that the top players are about 100 above the average. A 100 point difference in rating should result in the higher rated player having a Win% of about 64%. 80% is possible for a fast climbing player. ABove 80% is interesting but could be explained by the player having primarily played lower rated players within the level. a 200 point difference would mean a win% of about 76%. A win % of 80% would suggest the player is rated 240 above the average opponent they played. So the strange results are in Category 1!!


Category 3 - Top 10 Players by Win %

		Games
Level	Win%	Played
santa	68.8%	40
Luker	66.7%	42
dgardner	65.7%	54
wytenyte	65.2%	46
mincer	63.8%	47
wlmffm	63.7%	135
frane	63.2%	68
diabeditor	62.7%	216
CheckedTom	62.1%	66
CharlieP	61.5%	104

Category 2 - Top 10 Players by Win %

		Games
Level	Win%	Played
harleydude	78.8%	40
epszilon	70.6%	80
henk-jan	70.6%	90
QETUTOR2	70.5%	78
MuddyPuppy	70.5%	44
aresbe	69.6%	46
Cyber Mouse	69.0%	63
Mrfish	66.9%	77
kingprawn	65.5%	71
Daniel Macintyre	64.6%	79

Category 1 - Top 10 Players by Win %

		Games
Level	Win%	Played
spence	83.1%	89
le roi denis	81.0%	42
kml	70.0%	100
KingKong	68.6%	159
supermats	68.2%	66
CVB	67.9%	140
Bobby F	67.2%	90
Fudgee	66.1%	90
hands-up	65.8%	117
allthekingsmen55	65.2%	165

[savin]

By popular demand....

The players least likely to draw a game. Stats are based on games against players of the same level, and to be on the list a player must have completed 40 games against established players of the same level.

Players with the same percentage have been sorted so that they player with the most games comes first.

Category 1 Top 10 Least Likely to Draw a Game

Player	Draw%
e-trade	0.0%
bonmatin	0.5%
Chezbuzz	0.5%
Kaysey	0.9%
QuidProQuo	1.4%
Bobby F	1.4%
shaunk	1.4%
Woodpusher	1.4%
Belatrix	2.3%
victor732001	2.3%

Category 2 Top 10 Least Likely to Draw a Game

Player	Draw%
CAMELOT	0.0%
PowerRanger	0.5%
WARLORD	0.5%
Checker	0.5%
Filip	0.5%
harleydude	0.5%
Bluesman	0.9%
Kwest	0.9%
butterfly	0.9%
totalitarian	0.9%

Category 3 Top 10 Least Likely to Draw a Game

Player	Draw%
Bazooka Joe	0.0%
MUDMAN	0.0%
skinny bear	0.0%
prince	0.0%
nabhar	0.0%
Charlton	0.0%
horseshoe	0.5%
Skiba	0.5%
cranky	0.5%
checkmatemate	0.5%

Category 4 Top 10 Least Likely to Draw a Game

sorted based on number of games since so many have never drawn a game!!

Player	Draw%
hanke	0.0%
ucantwin	0.0%
wayne6gambino	0.0%
Pollo	0.0%
Catfish7	0.0%
bizski	0.0%
ebs	0.0%
its me matty d	0.0%
German Knight	0.0%
ahdonye	0.0%

All of these players have played over 85 games against other Category 4 opponets without a draw. Hanke is at 209 games without a draw!!

[yitwail]

savin, thanks for supplying this data. i'm tempted to try & *achieve* a draw by stalemate against one of these players. ;D